[International] Decoding International / Unsinkable Aircraft Carrier in the Arctic? Iceland Ponders Joining the EU
bellala 央廣7h agoEdited
Reuters reported on the 16th that Icelandic Finance Minister Dadi Mar Kristofersson said that Iceland should join the EU to help promote the economy, counter stronger trading partners, and withstand the increasingly fierce competition in the Arctic region.
August 29th Referendum Concerns Iceland's Future
Iceland will hold a referendum on August 29th on whether to restart accession talks with Brussels. This North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) member is located at one of the most strategic crossroads in the North Atlantic.
Iceland applied to join the EU in the year following the 2008 financial crisis and negotiations began in 2010. However, these negotiations stalled after the parliamentary elections three years later, and Reykjavik abandoned the previous talks after the rise of an Eurosceptic government in 2013. The then-government announced the end of negotiations with the EU in 2015.
According to a policy agreement by Iceland's center-left coalition government, a referendum must be held before the end of 2027 to decide "whether to continue negotiations on Iceland's accession to the EU."
Kristofersson's party recommends voters cast a 'yes' vote. He believes that joining the EU would benefit Iceland's economic and security interests. "For a small, open economy, the core values have always been free trade and a rules-based order, because we do not have the capacity to defend our interests by force."
Trump's Greenland Policy Raises Concerns
Kristofersson stated that the 1951 bilateral defense agreement with the United States and its NATO membership remain the foundation of Iceland's security, but U.S. President Donald Trump's threat to take over Greenland has somewhat altered this consideration.
This stalemate has led to one of the most intense transatlantic confrontations in years, with the EU threatening comprehensive economic retaliation against Washington.
Kristofersson said that the U.S. considers its sphere of influence to extend beyond Iceland and Greenland. "And that will not change."
Iceland, located between Greenland and Europe, is in one of the most monitored waters of the Atlantic. For the country, this incident highlights its strategic importance. "We are an unsinkable aircraft carrier, and we will continue to be an unsinkable aircraft carrier in the future."
"Unsinkable aircraft carrier" was a description by World War II General Douglas MacArthur of Taiwan's strategic position, usually referring to islands or countries with important strategic locations in geopolitics.
University of Iceland economics professor Gylfi Zoega pointed out that under the Trump administration, changes that might have taken 10 years to develop gradually have been compressed into 18 months. "Europe is now on its own. And then we have to decide whether we want to be a US military base important for defending the US homeland, or whether we want to be part of Europe. And that is a major issue."
Upon joining the EU, Iceland, with a population of only 400,000, would be the smallest country in the EU, which has a population of 450 million. For the EU, Iceland's strategic location and rich fishing grounds make it an attractive candidate, although Brussels has been cautious to avoid appearing to engage in any campaigning before the referendum.
Cost of Living and Fisheries Economy Considerations
According to an analysis by Viska, Iceland's largest academic alliance, Iceland is the country with the highest cost of living in the world, with a central bank interest rate of 7.75%. This volcanic island, featured in HBO's popular series "Game of Thrones," relies on fishing, aluminum, and tourism for its livelihood.
Icelandic Central Bank Governor Asgeir Jonsson recently stated that joining the EU would bring benefits such as reduced transaction costs, increased competitiveness, and lower interest rates. However, he also warned of potential inflation during the transition period and the need for in-depth labor market reforms regardless.
Kristofersson said that EU membership is expected to lower interest rates. "Iceland (prices) will never be cheap, but... it might become a bit cheaper."
He noted that the current Icelandic króna is of small denomination and susceptible to fluctuations. Joining the EU would open up three options: maintain a free float, peg to the Euro, or adopt the Euro directly.
Opponents argue that Iceland already enjoys single market access through the European Economic Area (EEA) and does not need to bear the costs and obligations of full EU membership, and that obtaining permanent fisheries exemptions from Brussels would not be easy.
Fisheries are crucial to Iceland's economy and national identity. The industry is concerned that joining the EU's Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) could mean opening Icelandic waters to foreign fleets.
Geopolitical Background Adds Variables
As Iceland is already an EEA member and part of the Schengen Area for free travel in Europe, its domestic laws have already adopted a large number of EU regulations. Icelandic Foreign Minister Thorgerdur Katrin Gunnarsdottir stated in March that if Iceland's referendum supports restarting accession talks, Iceland could complete accession negotiations within "1.5 years" at the earliest, becoming the 28th EU member state.
The August 29th referendum is not a vote on joining the EU itself, and any agreement would require a second referendum.
Gunnarsdottir said that if the 'yes' side wins and the government subsequently reaches an agreement with the EU, "we will hold another referendum on becoming the 28th member state of the EU."
The Arctic is rich in resources and has become a hotspot for competition among the United States, Europe, China, and Russia. Considering the strategic importance of the Arctic, Trump's growing ambitions in the region, and his intention to take over Greenland, Gunnarsdottir emphasized that restarting accession talks is in Iceland's interest.
She stated that given the current geopolitical context, establishing closer ties with the EU is necessary. (Editors: Chung Chin-lung / Hsu Chia-yuan)
Further Reading
EU and Iceland Sign Defense Agreement to Strengthen Bilateral Security Cooperation
Decoding International / Why Does Trump Want Greenland? Look at What China and Russia Are Doing in the Arctic
Decoding International / Amidst Tense Relations, a Major US Icebreaker Order Boosts Finnish Shipyards
Source Link: https://www.rti.org.tw/news?uid=3&pid=214975
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