[Politics] Lin Zhan-hui Column: China's Call to Buy Pineapple, Grouper; Beijing's Economic Coercion Against Taiwan is Diminishing in Effectiveness
bellala 央廣4h ago
Since 2021, China has successively suspended the import of agricultural and fishery products from Taiwan, such as pineapples, wax apples, and groupers, on multiple occasions citing reasons like quarantine, food safety, or market regulation. However, at the recent "Straits Forum" held in Xiamen, China once again signaled its intention to purchase Taiwanese wax apples, groupers, pomelos, and tea, drawing public attention.
On the surface, this appears to be a sign of warming agricultural and fishery trade relations between the two sides. However, from the perspective of economic coercion and security, a more noteworthy message from this policy adjustment is that the marginal utility of China's use of agricultural and fishery product restrictions as a tool to pressure Taiwan is gradually declining.
Beijing's Coercion Model Against Taiwan and Taiwan's Response
In the past, Taiwan's agricultural and fishery products were significantly dependent on the Chinese market. Beijing's policy objective at the time was clear: to exert economic pressure on specific agricultural and fishery industries through market access control, thereby influencing relevant industry groups and local interest structures, and signaling to Taiwanese society that political factors would affect market access.
However, over the years, the political effects originally anticipated by Beijing have not been fully realized. In response to China's market restrictions, the Taiwanese government has actively promoted the transformation of agricultural product exports and market diversification policies, assisting businesses in expanding into alternative markets such as Japan, the United States, and Southeast Asia. Concurrently, the government has also reduced the impact on industries and the livelihoods of farmers and fishermen through domestic procurement and processing subsidies. Over the past few years, Taiwan has gradually reduced its reliance on the Chinese market, establishing new export channels and risk diversification mechanisms.
The Effectiveness of China's Economic Coercion is Declining
Therefore, China's recent restrictive measures on Taiwanese agricultural and fishery products provide an important case study for observing changes in the effectiveness of economic coercion. Taking wax apples as an example, before the ban was implemented, the Chinese market accounted for over 90% of exports. Groupers also had a considerable proportion sold to the Chinese market. Under these circumstances, China believed that by restricting market access, it could quickly exert economic pressure on relevant industries and political pressure on the Taiwanese government.
However, market dependence is not static; it changes with adjustments in industrial structure and market layout. Faced with Chinese market restrictions, the Taiwanese government and industry have actively explored overseas markets. Japan, the United States, Singapore, Malaysia, and Canada have gradually become important export destinations. Although the scale of these export markets cannot fully replace the Chinese market, they have effectively reduced the dependence of relevant industries on a single market. In other words, as Taiwan enhances its industrial "supply chain resilience" and market diversification, the political influence of the single Chinese market on Taiwan will be limited as Taiwan's export market risks are dispersed.
On the other hand, compared to market diversification, the learning and adaptation capabilities of the Taiwanese government and farmers and fishermen are the most crucial factors in the diminishing effectiveness of China's economic coercion. The first time Taiwan encountered China's export ban, the industry suffered the greatest impact due to a lack of warning and preparation. Farmers, fishermen, and exporters faced issues such as order cancellations, price drops, and market contraction, leading to panic and uncertainty. However, as similar control and coercion measures have repeatedly occurred, the government and industry have begun to establish risk awareness and response mechanisms. During the second encounter with restrictions, the government and businesses had already started planning for other export markets and incorporated Chinese market risks into their daily operational management.
In conclusion, China's announcement at the Straits Forum to purchase Taiwanese wax apples, groupers, pomelos, and tea is superficially good news for cross-strait agricultural and fishery trade. However, from a longer-term perspective, it reflects another trend worth noting: the effectiveness of Beijing's use of import restrictions on agricultural and fishery products as a tool to pressure Taiwan is gradually declining. The procurement commitment at the Straits Forum is not just trade news; it is an important case study for observing the changing efficacy of China's economic coercion.
Author: Lin Zhan-hui, Assistant Professor, Center for General Education, Feng Chia University.
Source: https://www.rti.org.tw/news?uid=3&pid=215066
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