[Politics] Post-Summit Poll by National Defense Institute: 60% Believe US Support Unchanged, Over Half Worry About Being Sacrificed

The National Defense Institute recently released a public opinion poll on Taiwanese attitudes after the "Trump-Xi Summit." The results show that although nearly 60% of the public believes that US support for Taiwan will not change, more than half of the public is worried that Taiwan's interests may be sacrificed in the interactions between major powers, with younger generations being the most concerned. Additionally, most people do not believe that a single bilateral summit will reduce China's military threat to Taiwan or make Taiwan safer. #Reporter Yang Ren-hsiang reporting# The "Trump-Xi Summit" was held in Beijing in May, and its impact on Taiwan has been a focus of public attention. To understand public views on the "Trump-Xi Summit," the National Defense Security Research Institute conducted a nationwide public opinion survey, the results of which have been gradually released. Younger Generations Worry About Taiwan Being Sacrificed Amidst Great Power Interactions Regarding the question, "After the Trump-Xi Summit, will US support for Taiwan change?" the survey shows that as high as 58% of respondents believe it "will not change," 16% believe US support will weaken, and 10% believe it will strengthen. Furthermore, concerning "In the interactions between major powers like the US and China, are Taiwan's interests likely to be sacrificed?" a significant 51% of respondents believe "Taiwan's interests will be sacrificed," while 29% believe "Taiwan's interests will be considered," indicating that most people still hold a degree of concern about Taiwan's situation amidst great power interactions. Notably, younger generations seem more worried about great power interactions. Among respondents aged 18-29, 70% believe "Taiwan's interests will be sacrificed," compared to 55% for those aged 30-59, and 35% for those aged 60 and above. In response, Li Guan-cheng, an associate research fellow at the Institute of Political Warfare, National Defense Research Institute, analyzed that besides younger individuals having higher education levels and more diverse information sources, the rapid changes in the international landscape may also trigger their vigilance and concern about great power competition. Li Guan-cheng stated: "(Original sound) The younger generation has experienced US-China competition, the Russia-Ukraine war, and Trump's more transactional diplomatic style during his second term. However, I don't think this necessarily represents a loss of confidence in the US among the younger demographic; it's more like a reflection of Taiwan's concerns and vigilance amidst these great power interactions and competition." Maintaining Peace: Strengthening National Defense is Prioritized Over Appeasing China Li Guan-cheng further explained that when asked about "the most important way to maintain national security and peace in the Taiwan Strait at this stage," 44% of respondents chose "strengthening national defense capabilities," which is higher than 29.7% for "showing goodwill to mainland China" and 11.8% for "deepening cooperation with the United States." However, when asked about secondary options, "deepening cooperation with the United States" became the most chosen answer (44.9%), indicating that US-Taiwan cooperation is still considered an important auxiliary approach. Li Guan-cheng said: "(Original sound) In fact, the public is not choosing between 'strengthening national defense' and 'deepening US-Taiwan cooperation'; they tend to view these as complementary security perspectives or strategies." Regarding the question, "After the Trump-Xi Summit, will China's military pressure on Taiwan increase?" a significant 50.7% of respondents believe it "will not change," while only 28.4% believe it will increase, and 5.9% believe it will decrease. Similarly, for the question, "Will Taiwan become safer after the Trump-Xi Summit?" nearly 60% (59.8%) of respondents believe "there will be no change." Fang Tsung-yen, an assistant research fellow at the Institute of Political Warfare, National Defense Research Institute, analyzed that although the "Taiwan issue" was mentioned in the "Trump-Xi Summit," the positions and attitudes of both sides did not change significantly. Furthermore, in recent years, the Taiwanese public has become increasingly aware of China's threats, thus not believing that a single summit can alter the status quo. Fang Tsung-yen stated: "(Original sound) From the public's perspective, military or non-military threats from the CCP are unlikely to change because of one 'Trump-Xi Summit' or similar events." Experts Urge Government to Enhance Strategic Communication and Reduce "Doubting America" Sentiment However, Fang Tsung-yen also pointed out that when asked, "If a war breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, will the United States send troops to defend?" although 44.4% of respondents believe the US will intervene, slightly higher than the 42.5% who believe it will not, this figure has declined from 53.4% in a similar survey conducted in March of this year. This indicates that public trust in the US fluctuates with its actions and US-China interactions. Fang Tsung-yen stated that the interactions between the US, China, and Taiwan are not determined by a single high-level meeting but are influenced by multiple factors including military, diplomatic, industrial, and regional security. In the future, the government needs to strengthen "strategic communication" to help the public understand the multi-layered interactions in US-Taiwan relations and reduce the space for "doubting America" sentiment to fester. This survey was commissioned by the National Defense Institute and conducted by the Election Study Center of National Chengchi University. The respondents were primarily individuals residing in Taiwan aged 18 and above, interviewed via telephone. The survey period was from May 28 to May 31, 2026, completing a total of 785 landline and 342 mobile phone interviews, for a combined total of 1,127 samples. With a 95% confidence level, the maximum possible margin of error is ±2.92%. (Editor: Shen Zhen-jiang)